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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."